This Issue August 2026 edition
339 vs 574
Distinct operators recording a flip sale this edition, against the same period a year ago
The flipper field thinned to 339 selling operators from 574 a year ago, and the ones still closing widened their median gross margin to $109,900
Flip exits fell to 629 from 996 a year ago, but the count of distinct operators recording a sale fell faster — 339 against 574. Those still closing took a median gross margin of $109,900, up from $100,000, at 37.5% of basis versus 34.0%. They also turned faster: 128 median days held against 147. Resale pricing did not do that work — the median flip sale is $410,000, flat year over year, and $254.61/sqft is below $268.83. Margins here are gross; rehab and carry costs are not in the public record.
Investor Playbook
What this issue's numbers suggest checking, by investor type. Observations from recorded data — not investment, legal, or tax advice.
Fewer end buyers, wider spreads — requalify the list
Only 339 operators recorded a flip sale this edition against 574 a year ago, so the buyer list is materially shorter while the median recorded assignment spread ran $36,628 against $19,500 a year ago. The data suggests concentrating on zips where exits are still clearing at working-class-free, deed-verified volume: 85208 Mesa Far East showed 20 flips against 74 investor buys at a $267,492 median buy, and 85351 showed 15 flips at a $235,000 median buy. Worth verifying which of your buyers actually recorded a sale in the last two periods before you tie up paper.
Margin is coming from basis, not from resale price
Median gross margin is $109,900 and 37.5% of basis, up from $100,000 and 34.0%, while the median sale price of $410,000 is flat year over year and per-foot resale slipped to $254.61 from $268.83. Sale-to-assessed also eased to 1.28 from 1.33. The data suggests underwriting to a flat exit and taking the whole spread at purchase, with a 128-day median hold as the planning figure rather than last year's 147.
Buy-side is crowded but the median ticket is cheaper
6,262 investor purchases recorded against 4,734 a year ago, yet the median purchase fell to $435,000 from $450,000. Worth checking mobile and manufactured product, where 250 deals cleared at a $171,750 median and $164/sqft, and 85208 Mesa Far East at a $267,492 median buy, against condo stock at $332,000 but $289/sqft. Per-foot basis, not headline price, is where the mix difference shows up.
Rehab money is the gap the record shows
Recorded private loans fell to 85 from 260 a year ago while trailing-12-month data shows 72.3% of observed investor purchases financed, a median loan of $295,000, and a median loan-to-price of 0.96. Only 38.9% of the 2,606 financed purchases carried rehab funding, and among named lenders Kiavi ran 105 loans at a 71.4% rehab share versus Capital Fund I at 111 loans and 36.0%. With 206 homes aging out of the flip window in the latest month, refinance and extension paper on held inventory is the visible unmet demand. Rates and terms are modelled, not recorded, so price accordingly.
2-4 unit product is trading thin and rarely flipped
Only 76 two-to-four-unit purchases recorded this edition at a $940,000 median and $333/sqft, and just 4 flip exits were 2-4 units — 0.5% of flip volume. With comparable trades that scarce, the data suggests leaning on per-foot marks from the wider single-family set at $257/sqft and condo at $289/sqft when you build a value case, and expecting a long marketing period rather than a flipper-style turn.
Factoids
Numbers from this period a practitioner would repeat to a colleague. Each computed directly from recorded instruments.
6,262 investor purchases — Recorded investor purchases this edition
Buy-side volume is up roughly a third year over year while the median purchase eased to $435,000 from $450,000. Acquisition competition is broader than the shrinking exit count suggests.
29% out of state — Share of investor purchases by out-of-state buyers, at a median $504,450
Out-of-area capital is buying a higher price point than local buyers. Sellers of $500,000-plus product have a wider bid pool than sellers of $250,000 product.
85 private loans — Recorded private loans this edition, median $286,695
Recorded private-lending instruments are a third of last year's count at a higher median size. Fewer, larger tickets means less visible rescue capital for operators who need a second draw.
$36,628 median spread — Median wholesale assignment spread surfaced on recorded deeds
Spreads nearly doubled on 47 assignments versus 49 a year ago. Recorded assignments are a floor, but the ones that surface are being priced far wider than last year.
$289/sqft on condos — Median price per square foot paid by investors on condo purchases, 833 deals
Condo basis per foot is above detached basis this edition even though the condo median price of $332,000 sits well under $455,000. Product mix, not location, is doing most of the work in per-foot comparisons.
10,856 homes in flipper hands — Estimated held flip inventory in the latest month of the series
The pipeline is smaller than a year ago even as 206 held homes aged out of the flip window in the latest month. Aged-out stock is the most motivated resale supply a buyer can call on.
Market Activity — Investor Purchases
Monthly count of investor purchases of MSA properties (left axis) and the median purchase price (right axis), trailing 13 months. The most recent month can grow up to ~15% as late recordings arrive.
Investor purchases per month (bars) and median purchase price (line), trailing 13 months.
Which vintage of housing investors bought this edition, by decade built.
Where the Money Went
The geography of the period's investor activity: which zip codes saw the most recorded deals, and the largest individual transactions at street level.
The 8 busiest zip codes for investor deals
Pins rank the busiest zips by recorded investor deals (purchases + flips of existing homes) this period — #1 busiest; orange = top 3; pin size scales with deal volume. Median buy is the typical investor purchase; median sale the typical flip resale. Click a pin for details; full table below.
| # | Zip | Area | Purchases | Flips | Median buy | Median sale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 85255 | North Scottsdale | 118 | 9 | $1.6M | $1.7M |
| #2 | 85351 | Sun City | 110 | 15 | $235,000 | $312,500 |
| #3 | 85254 | Scottsdale Airpark West | 98 | 7 | $955,000 | $1.5M |
| #4 | 85251 | Old Town Scottsdale | 96 | 8 | $506,500 | $615,000 |
| #5 | 85138 | Maricopa | 84 | 10 | $335,000 | $293,500 |
| #6 | 85208 | Mesa Far East | 74 | 20 | $267,492 | $302,450 |
| #7 | 85374 | Surprise | 86 | 8 | $369,450 | $391,450 |
| #8 | 85308 | Arrowhead | 83 | 10 | $432,000 | $443,750 |
A representative deal in each of the busiest zips
One deal per zip: the largest matching this market's typical house (typical for this market: 1599 sqft, 3 bed, built around 1981; priced within 4x the county assessment and under 5x its own zip's median).
$1.8M · Purchase
15215 N KIERLAND BLVD UNIT 311, Scottsdale AZ 85254
Street View Nov 2025 — before the purchase
$1.8M · Purchase
7117 E RANCHO VISTA DR UNIT 3006, Scottsdale AZ 85251
Street View Dec 2025 — before the purchase
$1.1M · Purchase
11093 W FRONTIER DR, Sun City AZ 85351
Street View Jan 2025 — before the purchase
$630,000 · Purchase
7041 W GREENBRIAR DR, Glendale AZ 85308
Street View Feb 2025 — before the purchase
$535,000 · Purchase
16021 W SILVER BREEZE DR, Surprise AZ 85374
Street View Nov 2024 — before the purchase
$455,000 · Purchase
218 S GLENMAR RD, Mesa AZ 85208
Street View Nov 2024 — before the purchase
Deal sheet — private lending, in date order
Private loans recorded against residential property this period, oldest first.
| Date | Lender | Amount | Property | Use |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 5 | Amwake Harvey | $535,000 | 1417 E Briarwood Ter, Phoenix AZ 85048 | Single family |
| May 5 | Spencers Air Conditioning & Ap | $405,000 | 556 W Kiva Ave, Mesa AZ 85210 | Single family |
| May 5 | Ez Homes INC | $260,000 | 11714 W Sherman ST, Avondale AZ 85323 | Single family |
| May 5 | Valdez Gilberto | $45,000 | 21621 W Narramore RD, Buckeye AZ 85326 | Mobile / manufactured |
| May 8 | Haggerty Family Trust | $400,000 | 5748 N 12TH PL, Phoenix AZ 85014 | Single family |
| May 8 | Haggerty Family Trust | $400,000 | 5748 N 12TH PL, Phoenix AZ 85014 | Single family |
| May 8 | Haggerty Family Trust | $400,000 | 5748 N 12TH PL, Phoenix AZ 85014 | Single family |
| May 8 | Hansen Kevin | $80,000 | 2443 E Tracy LN Unit 4, Phoenix AZ 85032 | Condo |
Largest flip margin deals of the period, at street level
Gross margin = recorded sale price minus the flipper's recorded purchase price. Purchase deeds are recoverable for roughly 4 in 10 flips; rehab and carry costs are not public record.
$890,000 gross · bought $535,000 (Jul 2025) → sold $1.4M
8507 E RANCHO VISTA DR, Scottsdale AZ 85251
Street View Nov 2025 — during the flip
$800,000 gross · bought $1.0M (Dec 2025) → sold $1.8M
8576 E VIA DE DORADO, Scottsdale AZ 85258
Street View Nov 2025 — before the flip (pre-renovation)
$720,999 gross · bought $375,000 (Aug 2024) → sold $1.1M
6818 N 13TH ST, Phoenix AZ 85014
Street View Jan 2026 — during the flip
$700,000 gross · bought $715,000 (Sep 2025) → sold $1.4M
5110 E LE MARCHE AVE, Scottsdale AZ 85254
Street View Nov 2025 — during the flip
$693,000 gross · bought $832,000 (Aug 2025) → sold $1.5M
5932 E GRANDVIEW RD, Scottsdale AZ 85254
Street View May 2011 — before the flip (pre-renovation)
$643,000 gross · bought $1.1M (Oct 2025) → sold $1.7M
9414 N 87TH ST, Scottsdale AZ 85258
Street View Dec 2025 — during the flip
Flip Structure — Year over Year
How the flip market itself is changing: margins, who is doing the flipping, what they flip, and where. Same two calendar months, this year vs last, from the current data extract.
| Flip market structure | Same months last year | This edition |
|---|---|---|
| Flips sold | 996 | 629 |
| Median sale | $408,250 | $410,000 |
| Median $/sqft | $269 | $255 |
| Sale vs county-assessed | 1.33× | 1.28× |
| Median gross margin (matched buys) | $100,000 | $109,900 |
| Median margin % | 34% | 38% |
| Median hold | 4.8 mo | 4.2 mo |
| Homes bought by flippers | 1,096 | 1,151 |
| Net to inventory (bought − sold) | +100 | +522 |
| Active flippers | 574 | 339 |
| Top-10 flippers' revenue share | 24% | 25% |
| Median house: sqft / beds / built | 1587 / 3 / 1985 | 1660 / 3 / 1986 |
| Pre-1950 stock share | 3% | 2% |
| 2–4 unit share | 0% | 0% |
| Median distance from downtown | 25.7 km | 25.6 km |
Homes bought counts every deed recorded to a known flipper in the window, resold or not. Net to inventory is that minus flips sold. The standing stock is in the Flip Pipeline section.
Attributed profit per flip (per-investor aggregates, by drop period): Feb 26→Jun 26: 902 flips, $1.7M/flip · Jun 26→Aug 26: 739 flips, $55,598/flip.
County mix (share of flips, last year → this edition): Maricopa 87%→89% · Pinal 13%→11%.
Flip Pipeline — Buying, Selling and Inventory
Homes bought by known flippers and homes they resold, per month, alongside the stock sitting in flipper hands. A house enters inventory when a flipper buys it and leaves on the next recorded sale, at any price. Purchases still unsold after five years are treated as holds and drop out.
Solid = recorded, dashed = projected. Green bars are inventory on the right axis: homes bought and not yet resold. Aged out is purchases passing five years unsold. Inventory moves by bought minus resold minus aged out.
| Flip pipeline | Bought / mo | Resold / mo | Aged out / mo | Inventory |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latest recorded month (2026-05) | 792 | 485 | 206 | 10,856 |
| Projected (2026-11) | 376 | 304 | 204 | 9,066 |
Method: a straight-line trend through the last 24 months, adjusted for the month of the year, shown dashed as a projection. The series stops before the newest month or two, where deeds are still recording.
Who's Funding the Deals
First mortgages open on flipper purchases from Jul 2025 – Jun 2026 that have not yet resold. 72% carried recorded debt; the rest closed cash or off-record. Ranked by deal count.
72%
2,606 of 3,602 flipper purchases carried a recorded first mortgage
$295,000
median 0.96× the purchase price
39%
1,015 of 2,606 loans exceed the purchase price, so the lender is covering work as well as the buy
| Lender | Loans | Borrowers | Median loan | Loan vs price | Funds rehab | Median purchase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital Fund I LLC | 111 | 83 | $301,000 | 0.91× | 36% | $316,500 |
| Kiavi Funding INC | 105 | 58 | $382,500 | 1.13× | 71% | $370,000 |
| Merchants Funding Az LLC | 81 | 41 | $514,170 | 1.05× | 64% | $490,000 |
| United Wholesale Mortgage LLC | 73 | 64 | $378,026 | 0.97× | 29% | $390,000 |
| Ron Swanson Holdings LLC | 67 | 22 | $285,000 | 1.02× | 61% | $293,000 |
| Rocket Mortgage LLC | 50 | 41 | $357,319 | 0.95× | 30% | $415,400 |
| Ez Homes INC | 36 | 27 | $195,625 | 0.90× | 8% | $231,550 |
| La Familia Fin'l Limited PTSHP | 36 | 5 | $319,500 | 0.97× | 36% | $337,000 |
| Boomerang Acceptance LLC | 33 | 25 | $265,625 | 0.95× | 30% | $270,000 |
| Jpmorgan Chase Bank NA | 28 | 24 | $145,000 | 0.40× | 7% | $358,489 |
Rates and terms are not published: the county feed models both. Borrowers counts the distinct flippers on each lender's book. Loan vs price is the recorded first mortgage divided by what the buyer paid. Above 1.00x the lender is funding purchase plus rehab; below it the buyer brought cash to the table. Blanket mortgages covering several parcels are excluded, as are loans outside 0.1x-3x the price. Rates and points are not public record.
Flipper Profile — The Working Flipper
The 70th–90th percentile of local flippers by lifetime flip count — the established operators below the whales: 4–10 lifetime flips each. Bath counts are not in the assessor extract.
895
each with 4–10 lifetime flips (avg 5.7)
$16,100
58,658 flips matched to their purchase price
3.6 mo
purchase to resale, matched deals
1599 sqft · 3 bd
median year built 1981
Where they work: McCormick Ranch (85258) 2% · Paradise Valley North (85032) 2% · Scottsdale Airpark West (85254) 2% · Sun City (85351) 2% · North Phoenix (85029) 2%.
Market Pulse
| per month, Feb–Jun 2026 | per month, Jun–Aug 2026 | change | avg/mo 2yr | avg/mo 4yr | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ Homes bought by flippers | 548 | 576 | +5% | 561 | 717 |
| ▼ Flips sold (deeds) | 498 | 315 | -37% | 594 | 839 |
| ▲ Lending deals funded | 221 | 288 | +30% | — | — |
| ▲ Seller/notes held (net) | 53 | 641 | +588/mo | — | — |
| ▼ Investors (net) | 1,150 | 1,048 | -9% | — | — |
Flips and flipper purchases = recorded deeds, same two months each year; their 2- and 4-year columns are per-month averages of the deed series. The remaining rows come from the investor file, which spans 13 months, so they have no multi-year average (2026: Jun 2026 → Aug 2026; 2025: Feb 2026 → Jun 2026).
Past Issues
Methodology
Source Data
Every figure is computed from recorded instruments (deeds, mortgages, assignments) and assessor property records for the five counties of the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler-Elyria MSA. No surveys, no estimates, no listings data.
This edition analyzes transactions dated May 1 – June 30, 2026, as recorded through the 2026-08 data extract.
Who Counts as an Investor
Investors are entities whose recorded transaction history looks like investing: rental holding (landlords), short-hold resales (flippers), private mortgage lending, note holding, or contract assignment (wholesalers). Banks, homebuilders, iBuyers, SFR funds, and government entities are identified by name and reported separately from small investors.
How Comparisons Work
The Market Pulse reports activity attributed between successive data drops, from the per-investor lifetime totals maintained upstream — periods differ in length, so per-month rates are shown. Elsewhere, "vs. year ago" compares the same calendar months one year earlier, counted from the same data extract. Transfers under $5,000 (quitclaims, partial interests) are excluded everywhere. Counts lag recording by 4–8 weeks, and the newest month can grow up to ~15% as late records arrive — direction is reliable before magnitude.
Known Limits
Wholesale assignments only appear when they touch a recorded deed, so those counts are a floor. Flip hold times are measured from the prior recorded sale. Names are the owner of record, which may be an LLC or trust.
About
Purpose
A working tool for small real estate investors in Greater Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler: what actually closed, where, at what prices, and what it suggests checking next — one theme per issue.
Cadence
Published with each bi-monthly data drop, covering the two most recent complete months of recorded activity.
Disclaimer
Observations from public records, not investment, legal, or tax advice. Past activity does not guarantee future results. Verify any property or counterparty independently before transacting.