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August Edition — Thinner Bench

Analyzing transactions recorded May 1 – June 30, 2026

This Issue August 2026 edition

101 vs 199
Distinct operators recording a flip resale this edition, versus the same two months a year ago

The flipper roster halved: 101 operators recorded a resale, against 199 a year ago

One hundred one operators recorded a flip resale this edition, against 199 a year ago, and the deal count fell with them: 125 resales versus 243. The buy side is contracting faster than the sell side, with flippers taking title to 191 homes against 376 a year ago, so the pipeline refilling behind these exits is thin. What remains is more concentrated: the top ten operators by resale revenue took 37.7% of the dollars, up from 32.6%. Counts are recorded instruments lagging four to eight weeks, and the most recent month can still grow.

Investor Playbook

What this issue's numbers suggest checking, by investor type. Observations from recorded data — not investment, legal, or tax advice.

Fewer end buyers means shorter buyer lists and tighter spreads

Wholesalers
Flipper acquisitions ran 191 this edition against 376 a year ago, and only 101 operators recorded a resale, so assignment demand is thinner than the 2 surfaced assignments alone suggest (wholesale counts are a floor). The data suggests concentrating on where the 4-8 lifetime-flip band actually works: Lakewood West 98498, Spanaway South 98387, Parkland 98444, East Tacoma 98404 and Bonney Lake 98391. Bring contracts priced against a $409/sqft exit, not last year's $446.

Buy to a 226-day hold, not a 204-day one

Flippers
Median gross margin came in at 52.8% versus 59.0% a year ago on a 226-day median hold, so carry assumptions built last summer are stale. The typical resale this edition was 1,691 sqft, 3 bed, built 1968, about 34 km from the Seattle CBD, and 25.6% were pre-1950 against 23.0% a year ago. Pierce took 36.8% of flip resales versus 33.3% a year ago while King slipped to 41.6% from 45.7%; worth checking whether your acquisition footprint has drifted with it.

The per-foot gap favours 2-4 units and manufactured product

Landlords
Investors paid a median $314/sqft across 84 two-to-four unit purchases and $220/sqft across 59 mobile or manufactured deals, against $451/sqft on 1,679 single-family buys. With overall investor purchase medians at $715,000 versus $750,000 a year ago, entry pricing is modestly softer market-wide. Lower-basis buy zips worth screening include Lake Stevens 98258 at a $620,000 median buy and Everett South 98203 at $480,000.

Fill the extension and payoff gap the slower exits create

Private lenders
Only 78 private loans were recorded this edition against 101 a year ago, while trailing-twelve-month bank and fund lending shows a median loan of $475,075 at a 0.99 loan-to-price and 47.0% of 953 loans carrying rehab funds. Eastside Funding recorded 60 loans and Kiavi 59 over that window. With holds at 226 days and resales at 125 versus 243, the data suggests demand for extension and takeout paper on aged projects rather than new-purchase originations. Interest rates and terms are not recorded and are not published here.

Small-scale residential trades are where the volume is

Multifamily investors
Apartment 5+ recorded 16 purchases at a $2,299,000 median and unspecified multi-family 8 at $2,117,400, against 84 two-to-four unit deals at $727,500 and $314/sqft. Small multifamily made up 0.8% of flip resales this edition, down from 1.6% a year ago, so competition from renovate-and-sell operators on that product is limited. With 180 seller notes recorded versus 154 a year ago, seller paper is worth raising in negotiations on 2-4 unit stock.

Factoids

Numbers from this period a practitioner would repeat to a colleague. Each computed directly from recorded instruments.

2,363 investor purchases — Recorded investor purchases this edition, median $715,000

trending down · vs 2,631 a year ago, median $750,000
Overall investor buying is off 10% year over year, a far shallower decline than the flip channel. The median ticket slipped $35,000 over the same span.

$409/sqft flip resale basis — Median price per square foot on flips sold this edition

trending down · vs $446/sqft a year ago
Exit pricing per foot has compressed even though the median resale property is slightly larger, 1,691 sqft versus 1,658. Underwrite new acquisitions to the current per-foot exit, not last year's.

226-day median hold — Median days from purchase to resale on flips sold this edition

trending up · vs 204 days a year ago
Three additional weeks of carry on the median deal, with gross margin at 52.8% against 59.0% a year ago. Margins here are gross; rehab and carry costs are not in public record.

$314/sqft on 2-4 units — Median price per square foot investors paid for 2-4 unit residential, 84 deals

holding steady · vs $451/sqft on 1,679 single-family purchases
Small multifamily continues to trade at a materially lower basis per foot than detached houses, at a $727,500 median. Condos, 474 deals at $482,500, price near single family per foot at $445.

78 recorded private loans — Private loans recorded this edition, median $375,000

trending down · vs 101 a year ago; 20 in the prior period
Recorded private lending remains below last year despite the rebound from a thin prior period. Over the trailing twelve months 77.4% of 1,231 observed purchases carried financing, with 47.0% of 953 loans including rehab funds.

180 seller-financed notes — New notes held by sellers this edition, median $400,500

trending up · vs 154 a year ago, median $451,000
Seller paper is up 17% year over year while note size fell about $50,000. It is the one financing channel expanding as recorded private loans stay scarce.

Market Activity — Investor Purchases

Monthly count of investor purchases of MSA properties (left axis) and the median purchase price (right axis), trailing 13 months. The most recent month can grow up to ~15% as late recordings arrive.

Monthly investor purchases and median price
Investor purchases per month (bars) and median purchase price (line), trailing 13 months.
Investor purchases by decade the house was built
Which vintage of housing investors bought this edition, by decade built.

Where the Money Went

The geography of the period's investor activity: which zip codes saw the most recorded deals, and the largest individual transactions at street level.

The 8 busiest zip codes for investor deals

Pins rank the busiest zips by recorded investor deals (purchases + flips of existing homes) this period — #1 busiest; orange = top 3; pin size scales with deal volume. Median buy is the typical investor purchase; median sale the typical flip resale. Click a pin for details; full table below.
#ZipAreaPurchasesFlipsMedian buyMedian sale
#198033Kirkland542$1.6Mn/a
#298012Bothell East401$815,000n/a
#398006Bellevue South335$1.5M$2.4M
#498034Kirkland North344$989,000n/a
#598103Fremont / Wallingford361$1.0Mn/a
#698052Redmond342$1.1Mn/a
#798115Ravenna342$922,500n/a
#898258Lake Stevens312$620,000n/a

A representative deal in each of the busiest zips

One deal per zip: the largest matching this market's typical house (typical for this market: 1643 sqft, 3 bed, built around 1969; priced within 4x the county assessment and under 5x its own zip's median).

Street view of 225 2ND ST S APT D3
$2.8M · Purchase
225 2ND ST S APT D3, Kirkland WA 98033
Condo · 2,199 sqft · May 4
Street View Jul 2024 — before the purchase
Street view of 12920 72ND AVE NE
$2.0M · Purchase
12920 72ND AVE NE, Kirkland WA 98034
Single family · 1,860 sqft · May 27
Street View Jun 2024 — before the purchase
Street view of 5001 NE PARK PL
$2.0M · Purchase
5001 NE PARK PL, Seattle WA 98115
Single family · 1,790 sqft · May 11
Street View May 2019 — before the purchase
Street view of 5600 140TH PL SE
$1.8M · Purchase
5600 140TH PL SE, Bellevue WA 98006
Single family · 2,370 sqft · May 11
Street View Jul 2008 — before the purchase
Street view of 3328 165TH ST SE
$1.7M · Purchase
3328 165TH ST SE, Bothell WA 98012
Single family · 1,980 sqft · Jun 30
Street View Apr 2025 — before the purchase
Street view of 14715 NE 61ST CT
$1.6M · Purchase
14715 NE 61ST CT, Redmond WA 98052
Single family · 2,400 sqft · May 7
Street View Jul 2024 — before the purchase
Street view of 7515 BAGLEY AVE N
$1.4M · Purchase
7515 BAGLEY AVE N, Seattle WA 98103
Single family · 1,900 sqft · Jun 23
Street View May 2019 — before the purchase
Street view of 11715 7TH PL SE
$755,000 · Purchase
11715 7TH PL SE, Lake Stevens WA 98258
Single family · 1,844 sqft · Jun 25
Street View Jul 2025 — before the purchase

Deal sheet — private lending, in date order

Private loans recorded against residential property this period, oldest first.

DateLenderAmountPropertyUse
May 1Ferguson David$822,50015883 Ne 95TH Way # 30, Redmond WA 98052Condo
May 1Tillotson David$750,00031620 56TH Ave S, Auburn WA 98001Single family
May 1Mccormick Monica$715,46326510 Se 172ND ST, Issaquah WA 98027Single family
May 1Mccormick Monica$715,46326510 Se 172ND ST, Issaquah WA 98027Single family
May 1Huppert Paul$600,00031510 Cumberland Kanaskat RD Se, Ravensdale WA 98051Single family
May 1Fulwider Gerald$180,0007009 A ST, Tacoma WA 98408Single family
May 1Mei Qingtian$167,50016301 Wallingford Ave N, Shoreline WA 98133Single family
May 1Mei Qingtian$167,50016301 Wallingford Ave N, Shoreline WA 98133Single family

Largest flip margin deals of the period, at street level

Gross margin = recorded sale price minus the flipper's recorded purchase price. Purchase deeds are recoverable for roughly 4 in 10 flips; rehab and carry costs are not public record.

Street view of 6008 34TH AVE NW
$2.0M gross · bought $925,000 (Sep 2024) → sold $2.9M
6008 34TH AVE NW, Seattle WA 98107
Single family · 3,860 sqft · Jun 4
Street View Oct 2024 — during the flip
Street view of 4241 145TH AVE SE
$1.8M gross · bought $1.4M (Jul 2025) → sold $3.2M
4241 145TH AVE SE, Bellevue WA 98006
Single family · 1,290 sqft · Jun 8
Street View Aug 2024 — before the flip (pre-renovation)
Street view of 5635 117TH AVE SE
$1.8M gross · bought $1.4M (Jul 2025) → sold $3.2M
5635 117TH AVE SE, Bellevue WA 98006
Single family · 4,290 sqft · May 15
Street View Jun 2018 — before the flip (pre-renovation)
Street view of 12211 NE 134TH ST
$1.7M gross · bought $1.1M (May 2025) → sold $2.8M
12211 NE 134TH ST, Kirkland WA 98034
Single family · 1,450 sqft · Jun 1
Street View Jun 2024 — before the flip (pre-renovation)
Street view of 1212 169TH PL NE
$1.6M gross · bought $1.2M (Jul 2025) → sold $2.9M
1212 169TH PL NE, Bellevue WA 98008
Single family · 1,250 sqft · May 22
Street View May 2019 — before the flip (pre-renovation)
Street view of 8716 128TH AVE NE
$1.1M gross · bought $1.2M (Jun 2024) → sold $2.4M
8716 128TH AVE NE, Kirkland WA 98033
Single family · 1,890 sqft · May 11
Street View Jul 2024 — during the flip

Flip Structure — Year over Year

How the flip market itself is changing: margins, who is doing the flipping, what they flip, and where. Same two calendar months, this year vs last, from the current data extract.

Flip market structureSame months last yearThis edition
Flips sold243125
Median sale$699,000$657,000
Median $/sqft$446$409
Sale vs county-assessed1.16×1.24×
Median gross margin (matched buys)$238,500$219,000
Median margin %59%53%
Median hold6.7 mo7.4 mo
Homes bought by flippers376191
Net to inventory (bought − sold)+133+66
Active flippers199101
Top-10 flippers' revenue share33%38%
Median house: sqft / beds / built1658 / 3 / 19691691 / 3 / 1968
Pre-1950 stock share23%26%
2–4 unit share2%1%
Median distance from downtown33.4 km34.2 km
Homes bought counts every deed recorded to a known flipper in the window, resold or not. Net to inventory is that minus flips sold. The standing stock is in the Flip Pipeline section.
Attributed profit per flip (per-investor aggregates, by drop period): Feb 26→Jun 26: 664 flips, $63,168/flip · Jun 26→Aug 26: 264 flips, n/a (revisions).
County mix (share of flips, last year → this edition): King 46%→42% · Pierce 33%→37% · Snohomish 21%→22%.
Biggest zip share moves: Lynnwood East 0.0%→4.8% · Everett Central 2.9%→0.0% · Puyallup 0.4%→3.2% · Kirkland North 0.4%→3.2% · Bellevue South 1.2%→4.0% · East Tacoma 2.1%→4.8%.

Flip Pipeline — Buying, Selling and Inventory

Homes bought by known flippers and homes they resold, per month, alongside the stock sitting in flipper hands. A house enters inventory when a flipper buys it and leaves on the next recorded sale, at any price. Purchases still unsold after five years are treated as holds and drop out.

Flip purchases, flip sales and inventory by month with projection
Solid = recorded, dashed = projected. Green bars are inventory on the right axis: homes bought and not yet resold. Aged out is purchases passing five years unsold. Inventory moves by bought minus resold minus aged out.
Flip pipelineBought / moResold / moAged out / moInventory
Latest recorded month (2026-05)119109873,703
Projected (2026-11)11186593,506
Method: a straight-line trend through the last 24 months, adjusted for the month of the year, shown dashed as a projection. The series stops before the newest month or two, where deeds are still recording.

Who's Funding the Deals

First mortgages open on flipper purchases from Jul 2025 – Jun 2026 that have not yet resold. 77% carried recorded debt; the rest closed cash or off-record. Ranked by deal count.

77%

Purchases financed
953 of 1,231 flipper purchases carried a recorded first mortgage

$475,075

Typical loan
median 0.99× the purchase price

47%

Funding the rehab too
448 of 953 loans exceed the purchase price, so the lender is covering work as well as the buy
LenderLoansBorrowersMedian loanLoan vs priceFunds rehabMedian purchase
Eastside Funding LLC6035$331,8060.95×35%$395,280
Kiavi Funding INC5928$505,9001.14×85%$460,000
Rain City Cap LLC3824$454,2281.11×76%$436,250
Intrust Funding LLC2512$768,8861.18×88%$670,000
Vontive INC2515$666,1471.14×84%$540,000
Blueprint Cap Income Reit INC2011$1.3M1.24×90%$944,500
Merchants Mortgage NW LLC1912$459,9001.13×74%$402,000
Conventus LLC1710$513,0000.99×47%$535,000
Genesis Capital172$1.8M0.83×35%$1.4M
Rocket Mortgage LLC1714$500,0000.90×24%$690,000
Rates and terms are not published: the county feed models both. Borrowers counts the distinct flippers on each lender's book. Loan vs price is the recorded first mortgage divided by what the buyer paid. Above 1.00x the lender is funding purchase plus rehab; below it the buyer brought cash to the table. Blanket mortgages covering several parcels are excluded, as are loans outside 0.1x-3x the price. Rates and points are not public record.

Flipper Profile — The Working Flipper

The 70th–90th percentile of local flippers by lifetime flip count — the established operators below the whales: 4–8 lifetime flips each. Bath counts are not in the assessor extract.

217

Flippers in the band
each with 4–8 lifetime flips (avg 5.1)

$-108,629

Median gross margin
2,612 flips matched to their purchase price

8.9 mo

Typical hold
purchase to resale, matched deals

1643 sqft · 3 bd

Typical house
median year built 1969
Flippers by lifetime flip count
flippers by lifetime flips · orange = this band
Where they work: Lakewood West (98498) 3% · Spanaway South (98387) 3% · Parkland (98444) 3% · East Tacoma (98404) 3% · Bonney Lake (98391) 2%.

Market Pulse

per month, Feb–Jun 2026per month, Jun–Aug 2026changeavg/mo 2yravg/mo 4yr
▼ Homes bought by flippers18896-49%153157
▼ Flips sold (deeds)12263-49%132157
▲ Lending deals funded125520+317%——
▲ Seller/notes held (net)22358+337/mo——
▼ Investors (net)-249-2,995−2,745/mo——
Flips and flipper purchases = recorded deeds, same two months each year; their 2- and 4-year columns are per-month averages of the deed series. The remaining rows come from the investor file, which spans 13 months, so they have no multi-year average (2026: Jun 2026 → Aug 2026; 2025: Feb 2026 → Jun 2026).

Past Issues

Methodology

Source Data

County recorder & assessor via FARES
Every figure is computed from recorded instruments (deeds, mortgages, assignments) and assessor property records for the five counties of the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue-Elyria MSA. No surveys, no estimates, no listings data.
This edition analyzes transactions dated May 1 – June 30, 2026, as recorded through the 2026-08 data extract.

Who Counts as an Investor

Transaction-pattern identification
Investors are entities whose recorded transaction history looks like investing: rental holding (landlords), short-hold resales (flippers), private mortgage lending, note holding, or contract assignment (wholesalers). Banks, homebuilders, iBuyers, SFR funds, and government entities are identified by name and reported separately from small investors.

How Comparisons Work

Attribution deltas + same-window comparisons
The Market Pulse reports activity attributed between successive data drops, from the per-investor lifetime totals maintained upstream — periods differ in length, so per-month rates are shown. Elsewhere, "vs. year ago" compares the same calendar months one year earlier, counted from the same data extract. Transfers under $5,000 (quitclaims, partial interests) are excluded everywhere. Counts lag recording by 4–8 weeks, and the newest month can grow up to ~15% as late records arrive — direction is reliable before magnitude.

Known Limits

Floors, not ceilings
Wholesale assignments only appear when they touch a recorded deed, so those counts are a floor. Flip hold times are measured from the prior recorded sale. Names are the owner of record, which may be an LLC or trust.

About

Purpose

A working tool for small real estate investors in Greater Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue: what actually closed, where, at what prices, and what it suggests checking next — one theme per issue.

Cadence

Published with each bi-monthly data drop, covering the two most recent complete months of recorded activity.

Disclaimer

Observations from public records, not investment, legal, or tax advice. Past activity does not guarantee future results. Verify any property or counterparty independently before transacting.