This Issue August 2026 edition
$81,000 vs $95,000
Median gross margin on flips resold this edition, against the same two-month window a year ago
Median gross margin per flip fell to $81,000 from $95,000 a year ago, and exits are clearing at 1.26 times assessed value versus 1.33 — the squeeze is on the resale, not on hold time
The 122 flips resold this edition carried a median gross margin of $81,000, down from $95,000 across 211 resales a year ago, and margin as a share of basis fell to 40.4% from 47.8%. Exits cleared at 1.26 times county assessed value against 1.33 a year ago, and resale price per square foot slipped to $203.30 from $208.99. Hold time did not lengthen — the median was 177.5 days versus 190 — so the compression sits in the exit price, not in operator patience. Rehab and carry are not in the public record; these are gross figures, and the squeeze on net is larger.
Investor Playbook
What this issue's numbers suggest checking, by investor type. Observations from recorded data — not investment, legal, or tax advice.
Price assignments to a 40% gross spread, not last year's 48%
Only 5 assignments surfaced on recorded deeds this period, at a $20,000 median spread against $24,990 in the prior period — and that count is a floor. With flip margin percentage at 40.4% versus 47.8% a year ago, contracts priced off last year's ARV assumptions are the ones that fall out of escrow. The data suggests testing the zips gaining flip share — 85706 (9.8% of resales, from 4.7%) and 85641 Vail (4.9%, from 0.5%) — and leading with 1970s stock, which drew 211 investor purchases this period, the largest decade bucket.
Underwrite exits at $203/sqft and 1.26x assessed, not 2025 comps
Flips resold this edition ran a median $284,750 on 1,456 sqft, built around 1977, three beds, about 14 km from downtown — the same product as a year ago at a lower clearing price. Worth checking every deal against the two benchmarks that moved: $203.30/sqft resale (from $208.99) and 1.26x county assessed value (from 1.33). Hold time is not the problem at 177.5 days versus 190, so extra rehab scope buys less than trimming basis does.
Condo and manufactured basis is where the per-foot gap is widest
Investors paid a $240,000 median for 209 condos at $204/sqft and $118,147 for 97 mobile or manufactured homes at $117/sqft, against $339,950 and $204/sqft for 804 single-family purchases. With 597 local landlords adding units (+735 units) since the last drop and 1,290 first-time local landlords appearing, competition for the standard three-bed house is broad; the cheaper product types are where the same rent dollar buys more square feet. Lower-median-buy zips this period include 85705 at $195,000 and 85713 at $220,000.
Rehab dollars are the gap as recorded private loans go to 13
Across the trailing twelve months, 645 of 822 observed investor purchases carried financing (78.5%), at a $205,742 median loan and 0.99 loan-to-price, with rehab funds on 41.2% of them (266 loans). Recorded private loans, meanwhile, ran 13 this edition against 208 a year ago at a $122,000 median. The active lender file is concentrated — FlipFast Loans at 48 loans across 6 borrowers, ArchWest at 23 across 4 — which suggests room for lenders willing to fund rehab for operators outside those repeat relationships. Note rates and terms are not recorded and are not published here.
Small multifamily stayed out of the flip channel entirely
Not one of the 122 flips resold this period was small multifamily (0.0% share, against 0.5% a year ago), so 2-4 unit stock is trading as hold product: 28 purchases at a $450,000 median and $275/sqft. Apartment 5+ recorded 9 purchases at a $1,245,000 median and $162.64/sqft — the lowest per-foot basis of any residential product with meaningful volume. Worth checking whether the per-foot discount at 5+ units survives your own unit-count and condition review before treating it as a basis advantage.
Factoids
Numbers from this period a practitioner would repeat to a colleague. Each computed directly from recorded instruments.
1,253 investor purchases — Recorded investor purchases this edition, median $313,000
Acquisition volume is up 9% year over year while the median ticket is down $20,000. Buyers are still transacting; they are transacting lower.
180 flip acquisitions — Homes bought by flippers this edition against resales of 122
Purchases by flippers fell 29% year over year, but because resales fell further, net additions to held flip inventory came to 58 this period against 43 a year ago. The held pipeline is still growing while exits thin.
13 private loans recorded — Recorded private loans this edition, median $122,000
Recorded private lending has all but vanished from the deed record at this drop, and the loans that did record are smaller. Seller-financed notes also stepped back to 95 from 126 a year ago.
9.8% of flips in 85706 — Littletown / Airport share of flip resales
85706 and Vail (85641, 4.9% from 0.5%) took share while Palo Verde / Rosemont (85711) fell to 2.5% from 6.6%. The flip map moved outward this period.
$275/sqft on 2-4 units — Median price per square foot paid on 2-4 unit purchases, 28 deals at a $450,000 median
Small multifamily is the most expensive residential product per foot in the county this period; mobile and manufactured is the cheapest at $117/sqft on 97 deals. Basis choice, not rehab skill, drives much of the spread outcome.
29% of buyers from out of state — Share of investor purchases by out-of-state buyers, median $389,000
Out-of-state capital is competing at a price point roughly $109,000 above the local median purchase. California (61), Washington (40) and Colorado (22) lead the feeder states.
Market Activity — Investor Purchases
Monthly count of investor purchases of MSA properties (left axis) and the median purchase price (right axis), trailing 13 months. The most recent month can grow up to ~15% as late recordings arrive.
Investor purchases per month (bars) and median purchase price (line), trailing 13 months.
Which vintage of housing investors bought this edition, by decade built.
Where the Money Went
The geography of the period's investor activity: which zip codes saw the most recorded deals, and the largest individual transactions at street level.
The 8 busiest zip codes for investor deals
Pins rank the busiest zips by recorded investor deals (purchases + flips of existing homes) this period — #1 busiest; orange = top 3; pin size scales with deal volume. Median buy is the typical investor purchase; median sale the typical flip resale. Click a pin for details; full table below.
| # | Zip | Area | Purchases | Flips | Median buy | Median sale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 85614 | Green Valley | 92 | 3 | $235,000 | n/a |
| #2 | 85710 | East Tucson | 60 | 12 | $278,558 | $311,000 |
| #3 | 85705 | Amphi / North Tucson | 64 | 6 | $195,000 | $237,500 |
| #4 | 85713 | Menlo Park / Barrio Hollywood | 46 | 7 | $220,000 | $195,000 |
| #5 | 85716 | Sam Hughes / Blenman-Elm | 47 | 3 | $315,000 | n/a |
| #6 | 85719 | University / West University | 46 | 4 | $346,000 | n/a |
| #7 | 85718 | Catalina Foothills | 47 | 2 | $699,984 | n/a |
| #8 | 85755 | Oro Valley North | 48 | 0 | $542,500 | n/a |
A representative deal in each of the busiest zips
One deal per zip: the largest matching this market's typical house (typical for this market: 1518 sqft, 3 bed, built around 1976; priced within 4x the county assessment and under 5x its own zip's median).
$749,000 · Purchase
1642 E ENTRADA TERCERA, Tucson 85718
Street View Mar 2025 — before the purchase
$610,000 · Purchase
12575 N MOUNTAIN BREEZE DR, Tucson 85755
Street View Feb 2023 — before the purchase
$599,000 · Purchase
1367 S MADERA RESERVE DR, Green Valley 85614
Street View Jan 2026 — before the purchase
$580,000 · Purchase
2240 E 2ND ST, Tucson 85719
Street View Mar 2022 — before the purchase
$500,000 · Purchase
2621 E ADAMS ST, Tucson 85716
Street View Apr 2019 — before the purchase
$445,000 · Purchase
1228 N 4TH AVE, Tucson 85705
Street View Feb 2025 — before the purchase
$372,500 · Purchase
1925 S MCCONNELL DR, Tucson 85710
Street View Apr 2025 — before the purchase
Deal sheet — private lending, in date order
Private loans recorded against residential property this period, oldest first.
| Date | Lender | Amount | Property | Use |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22 | Zimmermann Christoph | $215,000 | 1599 W King Ave, Tucson 85713 | Single family |
Largest flip margin deals of the period, at street level
Gross margin = recorded sale price minus the flipper's recorded purchase price. Purchase deeds are recoverable for roughly 4 in 10 flips; rehab and carry costs are not public record.
$735,000 gross · bought $500,000 (Jun 2025) → sold $1.2M
7315 E WIKIEUP CIR, Tucson 85750
Street View Dec 2025 — during the flip
$475,000 gross · bought $650,000 (Oct 2024) → sold $1.1M
771 W GIACONDA WAY, Tucson 85704
Street View Oct 2025 — during the flip
$464,000 gross · bought $411,000 (Sep 2025) → sold $875,000
231 E RUDASILL RD, Tucson 85704
Street View Oct 2025 — during the flip
$220,000 gross · bought $235,000 (Dec 2025) → sold $455,000
6625 E PASEO SAN CIRO, Tucson 85710
Street View Mar 2025 — before the flip (pre-renovation)
$210,000 gross · bought $125,000 (Oct 2025) → sold $335,000
2643 N WILSON AVE, Tucson 85719
Street View Feb 2008 — before the flip (pre-renovation)
$210,000 gross · bought $440,000 (Nov 2025) → sold $650,000
9501 E QUIET PL, Tucson 85749
Street View Apr 2025 — before the flip (pre-renovation)
Flip Structure — Year over Year
How the flip market itself is changing: margins, who is doing the flipping, what they flip, and where. Same two calendar months, this year vs last, from the current data extract.
| Flip market structure | Same months last year | This edition |
|---|---|---|
| Flips sold | 211 | 122 |
| Median sale | $300,000 | $284,750 |
| Median $/sqft | $209 | $203 |
| Sale vs county-assessed | 1.33× | 1.26× |
| Median gross margin (matched buys) | $95,000 | $81,000 |
| Median margin % | 48% | 40% |
| Median hold | 6.3 mo | 5.8 mo |
| Homes bought by flippers | 254 | 180 |
| Net to inventory (bought − sold) | +43 | +58 |
| Active flippers | 102 | 58 |
| Top-10 flippers' revenue share | 51% | 56% |
| Median house: sqft / beds / built | 1464 / 3 / 1977 | 1457 / 3 / 1977 |
| Pre-1950 stock share | 5% | 7% |
| 2–4 unit share | 0% | 0% |
| Median distance from downtown | 14.2 km | 14.2 km |
Homes bought counts every deed recorded to a known flipper in the window, resold or not. Net to inventory is that minus flips sold. The standing stock is in the Flip Pipeline section.
Attributed profit per flip (per-investor aggregates, by drop period): Feb 26→Jun 26: 162 flips, n/a (revisions) · Jun 26→Aug 26: 118 flips, $117,955/flip.
County mix (share of flips, last year → this edition): Pima 100%→100%.
Biggest zip share moves: Littletown / Airport 4.7%→9.8% · Vail 0.5%→4.9% · Palo Verde / Rosemont 6.6%→2.5% · Star Valley 6.6%→3.3% · Drexel Heights 1.9%→4.9% · East Tucson 7.1%→9.8%.
Flip Pipeline — Buying, Selling and Inventory
Homes bought by known flippers and homes they resold, per month, alongside the stock sitting in flipper hands. A house enters inventory when a flipper buys it and leaves on the next recorded sale, at any price. Purchases still unsold after five years are treated as holds and drop out.
Solid = recorded, dashed = projected. Green bars are inventory on the right axis: homes bought and not yet resold. Aged out is purchases passing five years unsold. Inventory moves by bought minus resold minus aged out.
| Flip pipeline | Bought / mo | Resold / mo | Aged out / mo | Inventory |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latest recorded month (2026-05) | 134 | 106 | 38 | 2,381 |
| Projected (2026-11) | 73 | 56 | 27 | 2,119 |
Method: a straight-line trend through the last 24 months, adjusted for the month of the year, shown dashed as a projection. The series stops before the newest month or two, where deeds are still recording.
Who's Funding the Deals
First mortgages open on flipper purchases from Jul 2025 – Jun 2026 that have not yet resold. 78% carried recorded debt; the rest closed cash or off-record. Ranked by deal count.
78%
645 of 822 flipper purchases carried a recorded first mortgage
$205,742
median 0.99× the purchase price
41%
266 of 645 loans exceed the purchase price, so the lender is covering work as well as the buy
| Lender | Loans | Borrowers | Median loan | Loan vs price | Funds rehab | Median purchase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flipfast Loans LLC | 48 | 6 | $215,500 | 1.27× | 69% | $198,750 |
| Nova Financial & Investment Co | 24 | 19 | $154,875 | 0.81× | 21% | $206,250 |
| Archwest Funding LLC | 23 | 4 | $226,150 | 1.09× | 65% | $217,575 |
| Nova Financial & Inv Corp | 19 | 17 | $255,290 | 0.98× | 42% | $252,000 |
| Wells Fargo Bank NA | 18 | 17 | $104,358 | 0.60× | 17% | $205,500 |
| Alta Funding & Investments LLC | 16 | 11 | $217,500 | 1.16× | 75% | $187,500 |
| Crosscountry Mortgage LLC | 11 | 10 | $261,155 | 1.09× | 64% | $254,000 |
| Jpmorgan Chase Bank NA | 11 | 9 | $109,637 | 0.61× | 9% | $170,000 |
| Pennymac Loan Services LLC | 10 | 6 | $316,354 | 0.89× | 40% | $361,613 |
| Ganga LLC | 9 | 3 | $300,000 | 1.22× | 78% | $232,800 |
Rates and terms are not published: the county feed models both. Borrowers counts the distinct flippers on each lender's book. Loan vs price is the recorded first mortgage divided by what the buyer paid. Above 1.00x the lender is funding purchase plus rehab; below it the buyer brought cash to the table. Blanket mortgages covering several parcels are excluded, as are loans outside 0.1x-3x the price. Rates and points are not public record.
Flipper Profile — The Working Flipper
The 70th–90th percentile of local flippers by lifetime flip count — the established operators below the whales: 4–11 lifetime flips each. Bath counts are not in the assessor extract.
123
each with 4–11 lifetime flips (avg 6.0)
$81,000
4,040 flips matched to their purchase price
5.5 mo
purchase to resale, matched deals
1518 sqft · 3 bd
median year built 1976
Where they work: East Tucson (85710) 8% · Palo Verde / Rosemont (85711) 8% · Rita Ranch East (85730) 8% · Amphi / North Tucson (85705) 6% · Menlo Park / Barrio Hollywood (85713) 5%.
Market Pulse
| per month, Feb–Jun 2026 | per month, Jun–Aug 2026 | change | avg/mo 2yr | avg/mo 4yr | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ Homes bought by flippers | 127 | 90 | -29% | 124 | 146 |
| ▼ Flips sold (deeds) | 106 | 61 | -42% | 133 | 172 |
| ▲ Lending deals funded | 52 | 122 | +136% | — | — |
| ▲ Seller/notes held (net) | 39 | 559 | +519/mo | — | — |
| ▼ Investors (net) | 343 | 270 | -21% | — | — |
Flips and flipper purchases = recorded deeds, same two months each year; their 2- and 4-year columns are per-month averages of the deed series. The remaining rows come from the investor file, which spans 13 months, so they have no multi-year average (2026: Jun 2026 → Aug 2026; 2025: Feb 2026 → Jun 2026).
Past Issues
Methodology
Source Data
Every figure is computed from recorded instruments (deeds, mortgages, assignments) and assessor property records for the five counties of the Tucson-Elyria MSA. No surveys, no estimates, no listings data.
This edition analyzes transactions dated May 1 – June 30, 2026, as recorded through the 2026-08 data extract.
Who Counts as an Investor
Investors are entities whose recorded transaction history looks like investing: rental holding (landlords), short-hold resales (flippers), private mortgage lending, note holding, or contract assignment (wholesalers). Banks, homebuilders, iBuyers, SFR funds, and government entities are identified by name and reported separately from small investors.
How Comparisons Work
The Market Pulse reports activity attributed between successive data drops, from the per-investor lifetime totals maintained upstream — periods differ in length, so per-month rates are shown. Elsewhere, "vs. year ago" compares the same calendar months one year earlier, counted from the same data extract. Transfers under $5,000 (quitclaims, partial interests) are excluded everywhere. Counts lag recording by 4–8 weeks, and the newest month can grow up to ~15% as late records arrive — direction is reliable before magnitude.
Known Limits
Wholesale assignments only appear when they touch a recorded deed, so those counts are a floor. Flip hold times are measured from the prior recorded sale. Names are the owner of record, which may be an LLC or trust.
About
Purpose
A working tool for small real estate investors in Greater Tucson: what actually closed, where, at what prices, and what it suggests checking next — one theme per issue.
Cadence
Published with each bi-monthly data drop, covering the two most recent complete months of recorded activity.
Disclaimer
Observations from public records, not investment, legal, or tax advice. Past activity does not guarantee future results. Verify any property or counterparty independently before transacting.