This Issue August 2026 edition
354 vs 170
Net homes added to flipper-held inventory this edition (820 bought less 466 resold), against 170 net additions in the same period a year ago
Flippers bought 820 and sold 466 this edition — net additions to flipper-held inventory doubled from a year ago
Flip acquisitions held up while exits did not. Operators bought 820 homes this edition versus 941 a year ago, but recorded only 466 resales against 771, a 40% drop. That left 354 homes net added to flipper-held inventory, against 170 a year ago. Deals that did close moved fast — a 141-day median hold versus 177 — so this reads as fewer exits reaching the closing table rather than distress pricing. Recorded counts lag four to eight weeks and the most recent month can grow up to about 15% as late instruments arrive.
Investor Playbook
What this issue's numbers suggest checking, by investor type. Observations from recorded data — not investment, legal, or tax advice.
Buyers are still buying; the constraint is exits, not appetite
Flipper purchases ran 820 this edition against 941 a year ago, so acquisition demand held while resales fell 40%. Only 10 assignments surfaced on recorded deeds (a floor) versus 26 a year ago, at a $35,000 median spread versus $28,888. The lower-basis Pasco and Hernando zips carried the deal count worth working: 34668 Port Richey at a $165,000 median buy with 22 flips, 34667 Hudson at $160,000 with nine, and 34652 New Port Richey at $130,000 with seven.
Underwrite the queue ahead of you, not just the comp
The pipeline held 12,635 flipper-owned homes in the latest month, with 261 aging out and 430 resold that month. With 354 homes net added this edition against 170 a year ago, the data suggests more competing exits in the same product later. The median exit was 1,404 sqft, three beds, built 1975, sold at $320,000 and $224/sqft; deals that cleared did so in 141 days. Worth checking your basis against the 45.1% median gross margin before adding another hold.
Two basis lanes are open below the $328,800 purchase median
Investor purchases totalled 3,610 at a $328,800 median, roughly flat on $327,500 a year ago despite volume falling from 4,025. Condos ran 589 deals at a $195,000 median ($195/sqft) and mobile/manufactured 193 deals at $115,000 ($106/sqft), against single family at $301,000 ($209/sqft). Some 1,710 local landlords added units since the last drop, adding 2,694 units, so competition for the cheaper product is real; the data suggests pricing to the $153/sqft Spring Hill and $119/sqft New Port Richey city medians rather than to Tampa's $224.
Recorded private paper is thin where institutional rehab desks are not
Recorded private loans fell to 45 from 176 a year ago, while rehab-funded loans made up 33.7% of the 2,158 financed purchases over the trailing twelve months. Kiavi (85 loans, 88% rehab, median $267,700) and RFLF 4 (75 loans, 92% rehab, median $308,232) dominate the mid-size rehab ticket. The gap the data suggests is the small balance: median flip exit is $320,000 with purchase medians of $130,000 to $195,000 in 34652, 34667, 34668 and 34608 — below the size these desks typically write. Rates and terms are not recorded and are not published here.
Small multi is a buy channel, not a flip channel, this period
Multi-family (unspecified) recorded 109 purchases at a $440,000 median ($232/sqft) and Apartment 5+ 16 purchases at a $1.7M median ($254/sqft), both above the single-family $209/sqft basis. On the exit side, small multi was 2.6% of flip sales versus 3.0% a year ago — thin either way. With flipper resale volume down 40% year over year, the data suggests holding units acquired at the $232/sqft level rather than underwriting a near-term resale into a market where 354 homes were added to flipper inventory this edition alone.
Factoids
Numbers from this period a practitioner would repeat to a colleague. Each computed directly from recorded instruments.
284 flip operators — Distinct operators recording a flip sale this edition
Roughly two in five operators who cleared an exit a year ago did not record one this edition. The top ten operators took 24.2% of flip revenue, against 23.0% a year ago, so the remaining volume is marginally more concentrated.
36.5% of flip exits in Pinellas — Pinellas County share of recorded flip sales
Hillsborough's share fell to 30.9% from 40.3% over the same comparison, while Pasco held at 23.6% and Hernando at 9.0%. The exit map has shifted west and north within the four counties.
141-day median hold — Median days held on flips sold this edition
Median gross margin on those exits was 45.1% versus 42.4% a year ago, on a $320,000 median sale against $330,000. Rehab and carry are not public record, so margins are gross.
45 private loans recorded — Recorded private-lender loans, median $196,000
Recorded private paper is down about three-quarters year over year while loan size barely moved. Institutional rehab lenders filled part of that space: Kiavi recorded 85 loans and RFLF 4 recorded 75 over the trailing twelve months.
280 seller-financed notes — New seller-held notes recorded, median $200,000
Note creation rose 22% year over year even as the median note size fell $35,000. Sellers are carrying paper on smaller balances, which shows up as an acquisition channel for buyers who cannot source a recorded private loan.
3.4% of flip exits in 34608 — Spring Hill North share of recorded flip sales
Kenwood (33713) went to 3.2% from 1.4% and Seminole (33772) to 1.9% from 0.4% on the same comparison. In 34608 the period showed 51 investor purchases at a $195,000 median buy against 16 flips at a $315,000 median sale.
Market Activity — Investor Purchases
Monthly count of investor purchases of MSA properties (left axis) and the median purchase price (right axis), trailing 13 months. The most recent month can grow up to ~15% as late recordings arrive.
Investor purchases per month (bars) and median purchase price (line), trailing 13 months.
Which vintage of housing investors bought this edition, by decade built.
Where the Money Went
The geography of the period's investor activity: which zip codes saw the most recorded deals, and the largest individual transactions at street level.
The 8 busiest zip codes for investor deals
Pins rank the busiest zips by recorded investor deals (purchases + flips of existing homes) this period — #1 busiest; orange = top 3; pin size scales with deal volume. Median buy is the typical investor purchase; median sale the typical flip resale. Click a pin for details; full table below.
| # | Zip | Area | Purchases | Flips | Median buy | Median sale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 34668 | Port Richey | 53 | 22 | $165,000 | $239,200 |
| #2 | 34613 | Weeki Wachee North | 70 | 4 | $69,000 | n/a |
| #3 | 34614 | WEEKI WACHEE | 70 | 3 | $43,400 | n/a |
| #4 | 34609 | Spring Hill Central | 61 | 7 | $252,000 | $304,000 |
| #5 | 34667 | Hudson | 59 | 9 | $160,000 | $265,000 |
| #6 | 34608 | Spring Hill North | 51 | 16 | $195,000 | $315,000 |
| #7 | 34652 | New Port Richey | 57 | 7 | $130,000 | $130,000 |
| #8 | 33706 | St. Pete Beach | 60 | 3 | $569,500 | n/a |
A representative deal in each of the busiest zips
One deal per zip: the largest matching this market's typical house (typical for this market: 1402 sqft, 3 bed, built around 1974; priced within 4x the county assessment and under 5x its own zip's median).
$500,000 · Purchase
13390 HIGHGROVE RD, Spring Hill FL 34609
Street View Jan 2019 — before the purchase
$375,000 · Purchase
5127 FLORENTINE CT, Spring Hill FL 34608
Street View Jul 2024 — before the purchase
$320,000 · Purchase
4823 EBBTIDE LN APT 403, Port Richey FL 34668
Street View Dec 2021 — before the purchase
$250,000 · Purchase
8337 YELLOW PINE AVE, Brooksville FL 34613
Street View Jul 2024 — before the purchase
$250,000 · Purchase
6009 SEA RANCH DR UNIT 415, Hudson FL 34667
Street View Nov 2019 — before the purchase
$140,000 · Purchase
11195 FULMAR RD, Weeki Wachee FL 34614
Street View Feb 2023 — before the purchase
$72,400 · Purchase
4746 AZALEA DR APT 105, New Port Richey FL 34652
Street View Apr 2024 — before the purchase
Deal sheet — private lending, in date order
Private loans recorded against residential property this period, oldest first.
| Date | Lender | Amount | Property | Use |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 4 | Troy A Alexander Living Trust | $270,000 | 1059 Jameson RD, Lithia FL 33547 | Single family |
| May 19 | Lamborn Benjamin | $135,000 | 1025 Cobblestone DR, Spring Hill FL 34606 | Single family |
| Jun 2 | Margarita Lozano Pa | $230,000 | 4415 Booker T DR, Tampa FL 33610 | Single family |
| Jun 2 | Margarita Lozano Pa | $230,000 | 4415 Booker T DR, Tampa FL 33610 | Single family |
| Jun 5 | Lanz Maura | $295,000 | 2920 W Giddens Ave, Tampa FL 33614 | 2–4 unit |
| Jun 18 | Despard Staci | $110,250 | 808 Valencia RD, Plant City FL 33563 | Single family |
| Jun 19 | Eric and Jeana Burt Trust | $400,000 | 3908 Alafia BLVD, Brandon FL 33511 | Single family |
| Jun 25 | Gulati Dushyant | $60,000 | 9541 Round Lake DR, Weeki Wachee FL 34613 | Single family |
Largest flip margin deals of the period, at street level
Gross margin = recorded sale price minus the flipper's recorded purchase price. Purchase deeds are recoverable for roughly 4 in 10 flips; rehab and carry costs are not public record.
$644,211 gross · bought $745,000 (May 2024) → sold $1.4M
2823 4TH AVE N, Saint Petersburg FL 33713
Street View Jan 2026 — during the flip
$524,500 gross · bought $280,500 (May 2023) → sold $805,000
2844 30TH AVE N, Saint Petersburg FL 33713
Street View Oct 2023 — during the flip
$480,000 gross · bought $620,000 (Nov 2024) → sold $1.1M
760 115TH AVE, Treasure Island FL 33706
Street View Dec 2022 — before the flip (pre-renovation)
$417,500 gross · bought $467,500 (Jul 2024) → sold $885,000
2507 N RIDGEWOOD AVE, Tampa FL 33602
Street View Dec 2025 — during the flip
$398,257 gross · bought $156,743 (Feb 2023) → sold $555,000
4631 1/2 QUEENSBORO AVE S, Saint Petersburg FL 33711
Street View Mar 2011 — before the flip (pre-renovation)
$390,000 gross · bought $300,000 (Oct 2025) → sold $690,000
32500 KNOLLWOOD LN, Wesley Chapel FL 33545
Street View Apr 2025 — before the flip (pre-renovation)
Flip Structure — Year over Year
How the flip market itself is changing: margins, who is doing the flipping, what they flip, and where. Same two calendar months, this year vs last, from the current data extract.
| Flip market structure | Same months last year | This edition |
|---|---|---|
| Flips sold | 771 | 466 |
| Median sale | $330,000 | $320,000 |
| Median $/sqft | $230 | $224 |
| Sale vs county-assessed | 1.29× | 1.33× |
| Median gross margin (matched buys) | $97,000 | $96,750 |
| Median margin % | 42% | 45% |
| Median hold | 5.8 mo | 4.6 mo |
| Homes bought by flippers | 941 | 820 |
| Net to inventory (bought − sold) | +170 | +354 |
| Active flippers | 487 | 284 |
| Top-10 flippers' revenue share | 23% | 24% |
| Median house: sqft / beds / built | 1428 / 3 / 1976 | 1405 / 3 / 1975 |
| Pre-1950 stock share | 7% | 6% |
| 2–4 unit share | 3% | 3% |
| Median distance from downtown | 30.2 km | 32.1 km |
Homes bought counts every deed recorded to a known flipper in the window, resold or not. Net to inventory is that minus flips sold. The standing stock is in the Flip Pipeline section.
Attributed profit per flip (per-investor aggregates, by drop period): Feb 26→Jun 26: 1,390 flips, n/a (revisions) · Jun 26→Aug 26: 426 flips, n/a (revisions).
County mix (share of flips, last year → this edition): Pinellas 30%→36% · Hillsborough 40%→31% · Pasco 22%→24% · Hernando 7%→9%.
Biggest zip share moves: Spring Hill North 1.3%→3.4% · Kenwood 1.4%→3.2% · Seminole 0.4%→1.9%.
Flip Pipeline — Buying, Selling and Inventory
Homes bought by known flippers and homes they resold, per month, alongside the stock sitting in flipper hands. A house enters inventory when a flipper buys it and leaves on the next recorded sale, at any price. Purchases still unsold after five years are treated as holds and drop out.
Solid = recorded, dashed = projected. Green bars are inventory on the right axis: homes bought and not yet resold. Aged out is purchases passing five years unsold. Inventory moves by bought minus resold minus aged out.
| Flip pipeline | Bought / mo | Resold / mo | Aged out / mo | Inventory |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latest recorded month (2026-05) | 533 | 430 | 261 | 12,635 |
| Projected (2026-11) | 323 | 199 | 213 | 11,189 |
Method: a straight-line trend through the last 24 months, adjusted for the month of the year, shown dashed as a projection. The series stops before the newest month or two, where deeds are still recording.
Who's Funding the Deals
First mortgages open on flipper purchases from Jul 2025 – Jun 2026 that have not yet resold. 62% carried recorded debt; the rest closed cash or off-record. Ranked by deal count.
62%
2,158 of 3,495 flipper purchases carried a recorded first mortgage
$260,000
median 0.95× the purchase price
34%
727 of 2,158 loans exceed the purchase price, so the lender is covering work as well as the buy
| Lender | Loans | Borrowers | Median loan | Loan vs price | Funds rehab | Median purchase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Wholesale Mortgage LLC | 99 | 97 | $335,805 | 0.97× | 9% | $360,000 |
| Kiavi Funding INC | 85 | 52 | $267,700 | 1.20× | 88% | $217,200 |
| RFLF 4 LLC | 75 | 24 | $308,232 | 1.20× | 92% | $255,000 |
| Rocket Mortgage LLC | 47 | 45 | $284,000 | 0.87× | 9% | $355,100 |
| Wells Fargo Bank NA | 32 | 31 | $184,750 | 0.51× | 12% | $335,000 |
| 212 Loans LLC | 30 | 21 | $302,600 | 1.14× | 93% | $272,000 |
| Crosscountry Mortgage LLC | 28 | 28 | $358,403 | 0.95× | 14% | $383,750 |
| Bank of America NA | 23 | 23 | $137,095 | 0.53× | 30% | $260,000 |
| Cotilla Group LLC | 23 | 5 | $232,000 | 1.21× | 100% | $187,550 |
| Easy Street Capital LLC | 23 | 19 | $263,000 | 1.16× | 96% | $226,000 |
Rates and terms are not published: the county feed models both. Borrowers counts the distinct flippers on each lender's book. Loan vs price is the recorded first mortgage divided by what the buyer paid. Above 1.00x the lender is funding purchase plus rehab; below it the buyer brought cash to the table. Blanket mortgages covering several parcels are excluded, as are loans outside 0.1x-3x the price. Rates and points are not public record.
Flipper Profile — The Working Flipper
The 70th–90th percentile of local flippers by lifetime flip count — the established operators below the whales: 4–10 lifetime flips each. Bath counts are not in the assessor extract.
649
each with 4–10 lifetime flips (avg 5.6)
$84,073
12,731 flips matched to their purchase price
4.8 mo
purchase to resale, matched deals
1402 sqft · 3 bd
median year built 1974
Where they work: Port Richey (34668) 4% · Old Seminole Heights (33604) 3% · Spring Hill Central (34609) 2% · Spring Hill (34606) 2% · Spring Hill North (34608) 2%.
Market Pulse
| per month, Feb–Jun 2026 | per month, Jun–Aug 2026 | change | avg/mo 2yr | avg/mo 4yr | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ Homes bought by flippers | 471 | 410 | -13% | 507 | 636 |
| ▼ Flips sold (deeds) | 386 | 233 | -40% | 506 | 626 |
| ▲ Lending deals funded | 88 | 123 | +40% | — | — |
| ▲ Seller/notes held (net) | 65 | 283 | +333% | — | — |
| ▼ Investors (net) | 844 | 465 | -45% | — | — |
Flips and flipper purchases = recorded deeds, same two months each year; their 2- and 4-year columns are per-month averages of the deed series. The remaining rows come from the investor file, which spans 13 months, so they have no multi-year average (2026: Jun 2026 → Aug 2026; 2025: Feb 2026 → Jun 2026).
Past Issues
Methodology
Source Data
Every figure is computed from recorded instruments (deeds, mortgages, assignments) and assessor property records for the five counties of the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Elyria MSA. No surveys, no estimates, no listings data.
This edition analyzes transactions dated May 1 – June 30, 2026, as recorded through the 2026-08 data extract.
Who Counts as an Investor
Investors are entities whose recorded transaction history looks like investing: rental holding (landlords), short-hold resales (flippers), private mortgage lending, note holding, or contract assignment (wholesalers). Banks, homebuilders, iBuyers, SFR funds, and government entities are identified by name and reported separately from small investors.
How Comparisons Work
The Market Pulse reports activity attributed between successive data drops, from the per-investor lifetime totals maintained upstream — periods differ in length, so per-month rates are shown. Elsewhere, "vs. year ago" compares the same calendar months one year earlier, counted from the same data extract. Transfers under $5,000 (quitclaims, partial interests) are excluded everywhere. Counts lag recording by 4–8 weeks, and the newest month can grow up to ~15% as late records arrive — direction is reliable before magnitude.
Known Limits
Wholesale assignments only appear when they touch a recorded deed, so those counts are a floor. Flip hold times are measured from the prior recorded sale. Names are the owner of record, which may be an LLC or trust.
About
Purpose
A working tool for small real estate investors in Greater Tampa-St. Petersburg: what actually closed, where, at what prices, and what it suggests checking next — one theme per issue.
Cadence
Published with each bi-monthly data drop, covering the two most recent complete months of recorded activity.
Disclaimer
Observations from public records, not investment, legal, or tax advice. Past activity does not guarantee future results. Verify any property or counterparty independently before transacting.